Építésaktivitás vizualizálva – Magyarország

A posztot és a tableau viz-t összeállította: Gáspár János, Buildecon

EBI-dataviz-teljes-építési-piac

Korábban írtunk már ezen a blogon is az EBI Építésaktivitási Jelentésről, amikor bemutattuk ezen kutatásunk első eredményeit. A kutatás lényege, hogy egyedi építési projektek adataiból olyan aggregátumokat alakítsunk ki amelyek új, naprakész információt hordoznak az építési piac szegmenseinek aktuális alakulásáról. Most egy következő szintre léptünk.

Röviden a legfontosabbak:

  • A vizualizációval a három mutatószámunkat, (1) Aktivitás-Kezdés, (2) Teljesítmény, (3) Aktivitás-Befejezés, összefüggéseiben mutatjuk meg.
  • Az Aktivitás-Kezdés, hasonlóan az építési engedélyhez, un. előidejű mutatószám, azaz rövidtávú előrejelző képessége van. Az Aktivitás-Kezdés alakulása meghatározza, hogyan fog a Teljesítmény és az Aktivitás-Befejezés alakulni.
  • Az építési piac minden szegmensére látható, hogy milyen értékben indultak el kivitelezési munkák, hogy ez milyen Teljesítmény és milyen befejezési értéket eredményez. A legürdülő menük segítségével több részpiac, illetve több szegmens egyszerre is vizsgálható.
  • Érdemes teljes képernyős módban nézni, a jobb alsó sarokban lévő  ikonra kattintva tud erre a nézetre váltani.
  • 2018 3. negyedévről készült jelentés mögötti adatokat jelenítettük meg. Az azóta eltelt negyedévekről folyamatosan frissítettük a vizualizációt. Ha érdekli a legfrissebb, 2019 1. negyedéve, vagy bármilyen kérdése van, kérem írjon nekünk: ebi@ibuild.info.
  • Az alapadatok, vagyis az egyedi építési projektek forrása az ibuild.info, a mutatókat és az aggregálás módszertanát az ELTINGA és a Buildecon közösen dolgozta ki.

Mixed Feelings on the Romanian residential market

Written by Dr. Sebastian Sipos-Gug – Ebuild srl, EECFA Romania

Romanian snowglobe
Source: https://sofiaadventures.com/romanian-souvenirs/

Revisiting the Romanian residential construction market

We previously looked at the stability of the Romanian residential construction market and the likelihood of a correction even in the scale of the 2008 one. A lot has happened in the year since our previous post and we see ourselves faced with a similar question regarding the future of the residential construction, albeit now of a substantially different one. Previously, the main threat to market equilibrium used to be the oversupply due to speculative development. Now, we are faced with the distinct probability of a drop in demand.

Emergency Government Ordinance no. 114/2018 (EGO 114)

Residential construction was quite active in 2018, and our previous analysis indicated that despite significant growth in the past years, the market could be considered relatively stable. This has changed dramatically due to government intervention at the end of the year through Emergency Government Ordinance no. 114/2018 (EGO 114).

There are a number of features of this legislative paper directly and indirectly impacting residential construction: changing the minimum wage for construction workers, tax breaks for construction companies, changing the taxation of telecom and energy companies, and a new tax on bank assets.

Construction

Starting with 1st January 2019, the minimum wage for construction workers has been raised to RON 3000, up from RON 1900 previously, and higher than the RON 2080 value for the rest of the economy. The government also included in the Ordinance a tax break for these wages, exempt from income and health taxes, yielding a much better net to gross ratio for employees. However, the total impact on salary costs for companies remains significant. According to Continue reading Mixed Feelings on the Romanian residential market

EECFA 2018 Winter Construction Forecast

EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association), conducting research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern-European countries, released its 2018 Winter Construction Forecast Reports on 5 December 2018. Key findings are summarized below. Full reports can be purchased, and a sample report can be viewed at www.eecfa.com.

In many previous forecast rounds we have argued for a soft-landing scenario in Turkey. However, the dramatic fashion of the currency depreciation in summer 2018 unearthed many structural problems of the construction industry and made us revise our forecast to an even more pessimistic one. Unlike the stop-and-go like reactions to previous crises, we tend to believe in a stop-and-stay scenario this time. In Russia, we are less pessimistic thanks to a recently announced governmental program expected to affect the market positively.

EECFA-EE3

Optimism still prevails in the Eastern and Western Balkan countries of EECFA. For the region as a whole the new forecast sees just a little downward revision. However, on country level, the stories are different. Less optimism in Croatia and more optimism in Serbia and Slovenia compared to the previous forecast round. In Romania, the largest construction market of this region, the outlook of the building construction submarket has been adjusted downward.

EECFA-SEE5

Bulgaria. Construction output in Bulgaria is speeding up with an expected growth of 7.4% in 2018. Residential construction continues to expand on the back of increases in economic activity and real disposable income, and historically low interest rates on housing loans. Additionally, the non-residential segment is also predicted to grow driven mainly by office and industrial constructions. Civil engineering construction has continued its recovery path in 2018, Continue reading EECFA 2018 Winter Construction Forecast

Residential construction in Bulgaria – Growth goes on, challenges remain

Rises in employment and income in Bulgaria, combined with low interest rates both on deposits and housing loans, are pushing residential construction as well as the property market upwards. The rise in profit margin increasingly attracts investors in the sector. However, aging multi-family buildings and the growing number of uninhabited properties remain as major challenges ahead of the housing stock in the country.

Written by Yasen Georgiev and Dragomir Belchev, EPI – EECFA Bulgaria

Varna Wave ongoing residential project in Varna, Bulgaria – Source: varnawave.bg

Residential construction and the real estate market in Bulgaria continue to be in the focus of investors and developers. The turning point was in 2016 when the sector registered a growth of 31.1% and it is expected to increase in double-digit terms in the period up to 2019. These developments have a direct correlation with improved living conditions as in 2017 the Bulgarian GDP grew by 3.6%. According to European Commission forecasts, there are no signs for pessimism as they prognosticate a further growth of 3.8% in 2018 and 3.7% in 2019.

The economic development is accompanied by low rates of unemployment and an increased disposable income. Major cities in Bulgaria such as Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna and Burgas are getting more and more attractive, which leads to the concentration of the population and creates a strong demand in the residential sector. Consumer preferences are also changing in favour of quality properties (larger ones and with better location) that are lacking in the market. At the moment supply is still lagging behind, unable to catch up with demand. In H1 2018 completed newly-built residential buildings were 9.1% more than in the same period in 2017. In terms of dwellings, there is a drop of 10.3%, which is a proof of the completion of bigger-scale projects.

As a result, currently over 50% of the deals are made while dwellings are still under construction. Continue reading Residential construction in Bulgaria – Growth goes on, challenges remain

Q1 2018 Permit and Completion Data

The interactive permit and completion charts for residential and non-residential buildings in the 8 Eastern European countries EECFA covers and in Hungary (covered by Buildecon in EUROCONSTRUCT) have been updated with the latest data.

Residential permit-completion (number of dwellings)

Non-residential permit-completion (floor area and number of buildings)

Ukraine’s housing market prospects: up or down?

Ukraine used to have an acute housing problem owing to the lack of effective social policy in the housing sector, aggravated by the low level of housing provision in Ukraine and its relatively high cost. During the past few years, the growth in the volume of housing construction, mainly in large cities and in their suburbs, has made significant adjustments to the market, though. Given the historically high need for housing and a number of existing conditions for growth in this market, there has been significant progress in the development of the housing sector.

Written by Sergii Zapototskyi – UVECON, EECFA Ukraine

Tetris Hall Residential Complex, Kiev. Source: http://tetrishall.com.ua

Housing market situation

Since 2015, the market has grown quite significantly for a number of reasons. First of all, due to the sharp devaluation of the national currency when the best option not to lose one’s money was to purchase a residential real estate. This process accelerated the crisis of the banking system. The lion’s share of the money that Ukrainians paid to developers was taken into banks where they were on deposits with fairly high interest rates. Another problem was providing housing for internal migrants, soldiers and their families, and the like. Customers tended to choose dwellings in new buildings where, when buying, the prices were more acceptable, and when selling, they could stick to their positions. Under such conditions, the housing market began to grow, including the primary one.

More details on Ukrainian housing market trends can be found in the EECFA Forecast Report Ukraine that can be purchased here.

In fact, this growth was driven primarily by the increase in large cities and their suburbs. In Kiev, the year 2013 registered about 130 newly constructed buildings, while in 2015 around 220 residential buildings were built. In 2016, already 290 such buildings were built, whereas at the beginning of 2018 there are more than 330. Within the Kiev region, the figures are somewhat smaller, though the trends are very close. Although five years ago Lviv lacked sufficient new residential buildings and there were only few construction sites, today there are approximately two hundred sites. The situation is similar in Odessa, where there are now almost one hundred and fifty new residential buildings. In Kharkov, there are approximately a hundred new buildings, almost 70 in Dnieper.

Thus, we can observe a growth in construction volumes, and consequently, a rise in the commissioning of housing in these regions. Kiev region remains a leader in housing put into use, accounting for 35% of all housing put into use in this region. This attracts investors due to lower housing prices and the fast transport access to the capital city Kiev. In 2017, the share in Kiev region is 18%, and in Kiev city, another 17%. In the capital city in 2017, only holding company Kyivmiskbud commissioned more than 300 thousand square meters of housing. In 2018, the company plans to put into use at least seven new facilities on around 450 thousand square meters.

The dynamics in housing put into use in Kiev region shows considerable input volumes when compared to other regions. Thus, over the past 10 years, in Kiev region (Kiev city + Kiev agglomeration), 28 million square meters of housing was put into use, Continue reading Ukraine’s housing market prospects: up or down?

Ljubljana among cities with the fastest growing real estate prices in the world

Real estate prices in Slovenia have been increasing at a furious pace

Ljubljana, the capital city of Slovenia, has strongly rebounded from the recession. Since the bottom of the recession in 2015 till 2017, the average real estate price has increased by 15%. However, the price growth accelerated in 2018, making Ljubljana one of the hottest real estate markets in the world.

Written by Dr. Ales Pustovrh – Bogatin, EECFA Slovenia

Ljubljana Castle Hill and City Center – Source: visitljubljana.com

Following the peak in 2008, the Slovenian construction and real estate markets experienced a catastrophic slump. Total construction output decreased from EUR 4.6bln in 2008 to EUR 2.3bln in 2016 according to EECFA. The average real estate price in Ljubljana dropped by 25% between 2008 and 2015 (although the average price hides significant differences in price trends in different neighbourhoods and real-estate segments).

However, on the back of the strong economic growth in the last few years, prices started growing again. In Ljubljana, they increased by 15% between 2015 and 2017 according to GURS[1], the national database. In 2017, KnightFrank’s Global Residential Cities Index estimates that residential real-estate in Ljubljana has increased by another 4.4 %[2].

And the pace of real-estate price hikes seems to be accelerating further. Continue reading Ljubljana among cities with the fastest growing real estate prices in the world

Growing too fast? The stability of the Romanian residential construction market

As the housing market in Romania is seeing a rapid expansion, this rings the bell to some experts: there is a growing concern that the 2008 turmoil might repeat itself. Can the 2008 crunch be back in the Romanian housing market? This article is looking at the probabilities of this to happen.

Written by Dr. Sebastian Sipos-Gug – Ebuild srl, EECFA Romania

High-end residential project, Herastrau, North of Bucharest, Romania. Source: http://www.ascendproperty.ro

For almost a year now, concerns have risen regarding the Romanian residential market. Any instabilities in this field would have major implications across the whole construction sector, since residential construction accounted for approximately 1/3 of the yearly construction output of Romania in 2016.

Opinions emerged regarding the similarities between the 2007 and 2017 market dynamics, and reports by the National Bank (BNR), National Statistics Institute (NSI) and real estate agencies indicated unusually high growth rates of residential prices.

So, how likely is a correction event?

To answer this, we must look at the idiosyncrasies of the Romanian construction market, the similarities and differences between the collapse in 2008 and the current status.

The residential construction market in Romania is a mix between large projects, run by speculative developers, small projects contracted to construction companies and projects built by the owner.

Romanians are generally home owners, with 96% living in a house they own. They are also very fond of building homes themselves, mainly in the rural areas. This trend of self-development, mainly in the rural areas, is relatively untouched by macro-economic phenomena. Any disposable income is invested into construction materials that are used to build up or expand the home, leading to very low construction costs.

The main source of instability, however, is that of speculative urban (or suburban) development. With profit margins boosted by the real estate price increases and high demand, investments into residential construction are attractive. This has been evident in the years leading to 2008, as the number of homes in multi-unit buildings completed in 2008 was nearly three times that of the previous year, and the number of permits for this building type doubled yearly between 2006 and 2008.

The current status of the market is optimistic. Two-digit growth rates are estimated for 2016 and 2017, with EECFA’s forecast being positive until at least 2019 (the latest EECFA Romania Forecast Report can be purchased here).

Those who express concerns regarding these growth rates look at the similar results of 2006-2008 and expect another collapse of the market to take place. Other concerns are that much of recent growth has been backed by government subsidies. Under the ’Prima Casa’ Program, the mortgage market has considerably grown since 2010. Continue reading Growing too fast? The stability of the Romanian residential construction market

EECFA 2017 Winter Construction Forecast and Revision

EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association) – the forecasting association conducting research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern-European countries – published its 2017 Winter Construction Forecast Reports on 4 December. A concise summary on the main findings is outlined in this article. Please consider that foreseen development stories are rather different for the 3 submarkets (residential, non-residential, civil engineering) of construction in the countries we cover. In Russia, for example, civil engineering is expected to drive the total market back to expansion. Unless you need only an impression about the total market, we kindly suggest consulting with our reports.

Construction outlook up to 2019 in South East Europe: the countries EECFA dubs ‘South East Europe-5’ are Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia. The overall picture is still very optimistic, but the expansion rate of the total construction market has been revised a bit downward, mostly due to the worsened expectation in EU fund absorption on the forecast horizon. This affects largely the civil engineering submarket, where 9% cumulated growth is foreseen for 2018-2019 for the region as a whole. In a very favorable macro environment where money is cheap, building construction is set to continue to recover; with a 17% cumulated market growth predicted for the upcoming 2 years. Shortage of skilled labour in construction is a major constraint of a more rapid growth, though.

Bulgaria: the country is facing a 7% growth in total construction output in 2017 as EU funds of the new cycle are fuelling civil engineering construction which dragged down the whole sector in 2016. Thus, total construction output comes from a very low level; in 2016 it nosedived by 35.2% (compared to the forecasted 31.1%). In 2018, the construction sector is set to register a 5.6% increase (as opposed to the 6.4% forecasted earlier), while 2019 should bring a 5.7% rise (up from the +4.5% predicted formerly).

Croatia: the good news for construction growth in Croatia is the country’s increasing capacity to obtain EU funds, at which the current government seems to be getting better and better. Continued strong growth in GDP, private consumption, retail turnover and industrial production should also benefit construction. Total construction output growth is estimated to be 6.3% for 2017, which has been revised down from the 11.2% growth expected in summer due primarily to caution shown by buyers, bankers and developers in the residential segment and to delays in some government-led, civil-engineering projects. Continue reading EECFA 2017 Winter Construction Forecast and Revision

Serbia’s retail – primed for take off

Serbia’s retail segment is enjoying a robust growth in the number of permitted buildings due to the permit reform introduced in 2015. With the first phase of the reform having commenced in 2015, and the second phase having been set out in 2016, the application procedure for permits has been made fully electronic in order to have full transparency. Consequently, not only did Serbia gain a better position in The World Bank’s 2016 Doing Business list, but is now seeing a new investment cycle of the construction of high-volume international-type shopping malls. The start of such several big-league projects should sustain this growth cycle and give a boost to construction volumes in the years to come.

Written by Dejan Krajinović, Beobuild Core D.O.O, EECFA Serbia

Delta Planet, Ada Mall (top row), IPM center, BIG Fashion (middle row), BW Gallery (bottom) – Source: beobuild.rs

In an effort to improve investment climate, permit procedures in Serbia were marked as a one of the main regulatory obstacles to development, with a long line of inefficient procedures and corrupt instances suffocating the economy. Before the reform was introduced, in some cases, it took almost a year to acquire a building permit, even if all legal conditions were met. During 2015, the government presented a multi-phase reform, which would include a total overhaul of the procedures, resulting in far cheaper and much faster permit procedures. Its implementation started in late 2015 and so far, it has been a resounding success, with building permit applications now being processed in just a few days. Furthermore, the second phase of the reform implementation started in January 2016, with building permit applications now a fully electronic system in Serbia. With electronic and centralized applications, the reform aims to lower the number of instances and the possibility of corruption and hush money in the process. This significant regulatory reform helped Serbia swiftly boost its ranks in the World Bank’s ‘Doing Business’ list, and from 91st in 2015 it reached 47th position in 2016, making it one of the most improving economies of the world in 2016.

With some anticipation of investors, new permit procedures resulted in a strong spike of permit numbers across the board. Practically all construction segments have seen their share of growth, but with almost two years into implementation of the new permit laws, some construction sectors are leading the way. It seems that the retail segment forwards as main beneficiary in building construction, with a very potent investment cycle carrying almost 1 million permitted square meters in just over two years. Coming from a very low post-crisis level, this several-fold increase of permitted retail buildings created a real sector’s boom. The reasons behind such a strong reaction of investors lay in a very opportunistic market, open for development of big city malls and retail parks. It is worth Continue reading Serbia’s retail – primed for take off