EECFA 2017 Summer Construction Forecast and Revision

We have released our summer construction forecast on 16 June 2017 on Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine. This post intends to summarize the most important projections for these construction markets for the years 2017-2019. These are our main findings; for a deeper understanding, please consult our reports. You can contact us on eecfa.com.

Outlook for the EECFA regions

The highly optimistic outlook for South East Europe is maintained by EECFA. Leaving behind the transitory 2016, when the absorption of funds available in the new EU programming period (2014-2020) was still at a low level, the upcoming years are characterized by a bigger expansion of the construction market than that of GDP. Building construction is predicted to well outperform the total market, with a yearly average rate of 9% over the horizon. The small growth in the region’s total civil engineering market is attributed to the negative expectations in Romania.

Sideway moves, no further market expansion on the horizon are what we consider the most probable scenario for the 3 East European markets together. Turkey and Russia, being far the two biggest markets we cover in EECFA, is expected to show some similarities. In both countries our forecasts are moderately optimistic in the civil engineering market. While in the building construction market the outlook is clearly negative for Russia and neutral for Turkey. In Ukraine, the recovery experienced in 2016 is predicted to be sustained until 2019. Both building construction and civil engineering could expand further with a relatively good pace. Continue reading EECFA 2017 Summer Construction Forecast and Revision

The oil price decline and the construction market: riding the Saudi bull

the bull After assessing the impact of immigration on the European Union, this week’s post concentrates on another current issue: the oil price decline and its consequences on the construction sector.

This global income redistribution from oil exporters to importers is an opportunity for the construction market: they can ride the falling Saudi bull as cheaper fuel prices, lower costs and stimulated EU economies may generate more demand.

The International Energy Agency is forecasting a lasting low price environment; therefore both short and medium term effects are worth studying. The direct effect of lower fuel prices is a boost both for companies in the construction sector and for most European economies. However, missing petrodollars in the world economy and Russia’s dependence on oil revenues hold an important risk for the future.

Such issues will be discussed at the 80th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference. Continue reading The oil price decline and the construction market: riding the Saudi bull